Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms

Latif, Sarmad Dashti and Birima, Ahmed H. and Ahmed, Ali Najah and Hatem, Dahan Mohammed and Al-Ansari, Nadhir and Fai, Chow Ming and El-Shafie, Ahmed (2022) Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 13 (1). ISSN 2090-4479, DOI

Full text not available from this repository.


Phosphate (PO4) is a major component of most fertilizers, and when erosion and runoff occur, large amounts of it enter the water bodies, causing several problems such as eutrophication. Feitsui reservoir, the primary source of water supply to Taipei, reported half of the reservoir's pollutants from nonpointsource pollution. The value of the PO4 in the water body fluctuates in highly nonlinear and stochastic patterns. However, conventional modeling techniques are no longer sufficiently effective in predicting accurately such stochastic patterns in the concentrations of PO4 in water. Therefore, this study proposes different machine learning algorithms: the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and boosted trees (BT) to predict the concentration of PO4. Monthly measured data between 1986 and 2014 were used to train and test the accuracy of these models. The performances of these models were examined using different statistical indices. Hyperparameters optimization such as cross-validation was performed to enhance the precision of the models. Five water quality parameters were used as input to the proposed models. Different input combinations were explored to optimize the precision. The findings revealed that ANN outperformed the other three models to capture the changes in the concentrations of PO4 with high precision where RMSE is equal to 1.199, MAE is equal to 0.858, and R-2 is equal to 0.979, MSE is equal to 1.439, and finally, CC is equal to 0.9909. The developed model could be used as a reliable means for managing eutrophication problems. (c) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (

Item Type: Article
Funders: Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Malaysia [Grant No: J510050002/2021004]
Uncontrolled Keywords: Water quality parameters; Phosphate (PO4), concentration; Machine learning algorithms; Prediction and Feitsui reservoir
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Engineering > Department of Civil Engineering
Depositing User: Ms. Juhaida Abd Rahim
Date Deposited: 27 Jul 2022 06:40
Last Modified: 27 Jul 2022 06:40

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item