Determination of the forecasting-model parameters by statistical analysis for development of algae warning system

Lee, Gooyong and Othman, Faridah and Ibrahim, Shaliza and Jang, Min (2016) Determination of the forecasting-model parameters by statistical analysis for development of algae warning system. Desalination and Water Treatment, 57 (55). pp. 26773-26782. ISSN 1944-3994, DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/19443994.2016.1190106.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19443994.2016.1190106

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determinate optimal model parameters for prediction of long-term forward (>1 month) chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in lakes. To optimize model parameters, water quality data from 93 lakes in South Korea were collected and analyzed. Among the 93 lakes, 30 problematic lakes were selected as study sites. Correlation analysis using Chl-a and other water quality data were conducted, and the results indicated that electrical conductivity (EC) and turbidity are important key parameters, which are less considerable than in previous research. To verify effectiveness of the selected parameters, one-month forward prediction of Chl-a concentration was performed using water quality data from the most problematic lakes in South Korea. Artificial neural networks were used as a prediction model. The results of Chl-a prediction using selected parameters showed higher accuracy compare to using general parameters based on the literature reviews. EC and turbidity are important parameters, showing high correlation with Chl-a. This study will corroborate effective model parameters to predict long-term Chl-a concentration in lakes.

Item Type: Article
Funders: UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords: Chlorophyll-a forecasting; Long-term forecasting; Correlation analysis; Artificial neural networks; Algae early warning system
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Divisions: Faculty of Engineering
Depositing User: Ms. Juhaida Abd Rahim
Date Deposited: 08 Sep 2017 02:36
Last Modified: 23 Dec 2019 07:59
URI: http://eprints.um.edu.my/id/eprint/17756

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