Incorporating progesterone receptor expression into the PREDICT breast prognostic model

Grootes, Isabelle and Keeman, Renske and Blows, Fiona M. and Milne, Roger L. and Giles, Graham G. and Swerdlow, Anthony J. and Fasching, Peter A. and Abubakar, Mustapha and Andrulis, Irene L. and Anton-Culver, Hoda and Beckmann, Matthias W. and Blomqvist, Carl and Bojesen, Stig E. and Bolla, Manjeet K. and Bonanni, Bernardo and Briceno, Ignacio and Burwinkel, Barbara and Camp, Nicola J. and Castelao, Jose E. and Choi, Ji-Yeob and Clarke, Christine L. and Couch, Fergus J. and Cox, Angela and Cross, Simon S. and Czene, Kamila and Devilee, Peter and Dork, Thilo and Dunning, Alison M. and Dwek, Miriam and Easton, Douglas F. and Eccles, Diana M. and Eriksson, Mikael and Ernst, Kristina and Evans, D. Gareth and Figueroa, Jonine D. and Fink, Visnja and Floris, Giuseppe and Fox, Stephen and Gabrielson, Marike and Gago-Dominguez, Manuela and Garcia-Saenz, Jose A. and Gonzalez-Neira, Anna and Haeberle, Lothar and Haiman, Christopher A. and Hall, Per and Hamann, Ute and Harkness, Elaine F. and Hartman, Mikael and Hein, Alexander and Hooning, Maartje J. and Hou, Ming-Feng and Howell, Sacha J. and Ito, Hidemi and Jakubowska, Anna and Janni, Wolfgang and John, Esther M. and Jung, Audrey and Kang, Daehee and Kristensen, Vessela N. and Kwong, Ava and Lambrechts, Diether and Li, Jingmei and Manoochehri, Mehdi and Margolin, Sara and Matsuo, Keitaro and Taib, Nur Aishah Mohd and Mulligan, Anna Marie and Nevanlinna, Heli and Newman, William G. and Offit, Kenneth and Osorio, Ana and Park, Sue K. and Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won and Patel, Alpa and Presneau, Nadege and Pylkas, Katri and Rack, Brigitte and Radice, Paolo and Rennert, Gad and Romero, Atocha and Saloustros, Emmanouil and Sawyer, Elinor J. and Schneeweiss, Andreas and Schochter, Fabienne and Schoemaker, Minouk J. and Shen, Chen-Yang and Shibli, Rana and Sinn, Peter and Tapper, William J. and Tawfiq, Essa and Teo, Soo Hwang and Teras, Lauren R. and Torres, Diana and Vachon, Celine M. and van Deurzen, Carolien H. M. and Wendt, Camilla and Williams, Justin A. and Winqvist, Robert and Elwood, Mark and Schmidt, Marjanka K. and Pharoah, Paul D. P. and Investigators, ABCTB and Investigators, KConFab (2022) Incorporating progesterone receptor expression into the PREDICT breast prognostic model. European Journal of Cancer, 173. pp. 178-193. ISSN 1879-0852,

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Predict Breast ( is an online prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early invasive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of progesterone receptor (PR) status into a new version of PREDICT and to compare its performance to the current version (2.2). Method: The prognostic effect of PR status was based on the analysis of data from 45,088 European patients with breast cancer from 49 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for PR status. Data from a New Zealand study of 11,365 patients with early invasive breast cancer were used for external validation. Model calibration and discrimination were used to test the model performance. Results: Having a PR-positive tumour was associated with a 23% and 28% lower risk of dying from breast cancer for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative and ER-positive breast cancer, respectively. The area under the ROC curve increased with the addition of PR status from 0.807 to 0.809 for patients with ER-negative tumours (p = 0.023) and from 0.898 to 0. 902 for patients with ER-positive tumours (p = 2.3 x 10(-6)) in the New Zealand cohort. Model calibration was modest with 940 observed deaths compared to 1151 predicted. Conclusion: The inclusion of the prognostic effect of PR status to PREDICT Breast has led to an improvement of model performance and more accurate absolute treatment benefit predic-tions for individual patients. Further studies should determine whether the baseline hazard function requires recalibration. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (

Item Type: Article
Funders: Horizon 2020 [634935] [633784], Genome Canada, Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), Ministere de l'Economie et de l'Innovation du Quebec through Genome Quebec
Uncontrolled Keywords: Prognosis; PREDICT breast; Breast cancer; Progesterone receptor
Subjects: R Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine
Depositing User: Ms. Juhaida Abd Rahim
Date Deposited: 25 Aug 2023 07:04
Last Modified: 25 Aug 2023 07:04

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