Climate change mitigation projections for ASEAN

Rasiah, Rajah and Al-Amin, Abul Quasem and Chowdhurry, Anwar Hossain and Ahmed, Ferdous and Zhang, Chen (2018) Climate change mitigation projections for ASEAN. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 23 (2). pp. 195-212. ISSN 1354-7860, DOI

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This article analyses climate mitigation impact once the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) introduce their respective Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) using dynamic non-linear computable general equilibrium modelling and 2010 input-output tables. The results indicate that atmospheric concentration of carbon and temperatures under the business as usual (BAU) scenario will fall from 390 PPM and 0.80°C respectively in 2010 to 351PPM and 0.79°C respectively, whereas under the optimal scenario it will fall to 329PPM and 0.71°C respectively in 2060. Cumulative climate damage under BAU and optimal scenarios will remain the same at MYR8.0 Billion, MYR14.3 Billion and MYR 24.8 Billion respectively in 2010, 2015 and 2020 but it will rise after that to MYR579 Billion under the former compared to MYR513 Billion under the latter in 2060. The reduction in carbon emissions shall also be achieved without a tangible fall in GDP per capita.

Item Type: Article
Funders: University of Malaya Research Grant (Ac no.: UM.000030/HRU.RP.ES; Project No.: PR031B-16SBS), UNITEN [project number 10289176/B/9/420 2017/18], ostgraduate Research Grant (PPP) [research code number PG327-2016A]
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change mitigation; energy; ASEAN
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Economics & Administration
Deputy Vice Chancellor (Academic & International) Office > Asia-Europe Institute
Depositing User: Ms. Juhaida Abd Rahim
Date Deposited: 16 Apr 2019 01:51
Last Modified: 16 Apr 2019 01:51

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