Musa, Kamarul Imran and Arifin, Wan Nor and Mohd, Mohd Hafiz and Jamiluddin, Mohammad Subhi and Ahmad, Noor Atinah and Chen, Xin Wee and Hanis, Tengku Muhammad and Bulgiba, Awang (2021) Measuring time-varying effective reproduction numbers for COVID-19 and their relationship with movement control order in Malaysia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18 (6). ISSN 1660-4601, DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063273.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
To curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) in Malaysia, the government imposed a nationwide movement control order (MCO) from 18 March 2020 to 3 May 2020. It was enforced in four phases (i.e., MCO 1, MCO 2, MCO 3 and MCO 4). In this paper, we propose an initiative to assess the impact of MCO by using time-varying reproduction number (Rt). We used data from the Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus repository. Day 1 was taken from the first assumed local transmission of COVID-19. We estimated Rt by using the EpiEstim package and plotted the epidemic curve and Rt. Then, we extracted the mean Rt at day 1, day 5 and day 10 for all MCO phases and compared the differences. The Rt values peaked around day 43, which was shortly before the start of MCO 1. The means for Rt at day 1, day 5, and day 10 for all MCOs ranged between 0.665 and 1.147. The average Rt gradually decreased in MCO 1 and MCO 2. Although spikes in the number of confirmed cases were observed when restrictions were gradually relaxed in the later MCO phases, the situation remained under control with Rt values being stabilised to below unity level (Rt value less than one).
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Funders: | None |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Reproduction number; COVID-19; Movement control order; Epidemic curve |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Medicine |
| Depositing User: | Ms Zaharah Ramly |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Jun 2022 08:36 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Jun 2022 08:37 |
| URI: | http://eprints.um.edu.my/id/eprint/34042 |
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