Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

Chan, Jacinta Phooi M'ng and Jer, Ham Yi (2021) Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 57 (3). pp. 1033-1060. ISSN 0924-865X, DOI

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This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures' prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Algorithm trading model; Artificial intelligence neural network; Economic statistics; Futures pricing model; Stock indexes futures
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > Business
Divisions: Faculty of Business and Economics > Dept of Finance and Banking
Depositing User: Ms Zaharah Ramly
Date Deposited: 23 May 2022 08:16
Last Modified: 23 May 2022 08:16

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