Liu, Zimo and Liu, Hongwei and Azmi, Nur Farhana and Akashah, Farid Wajdi (2024) A novel dynamic evacuation risk assessment model of healthcare facilities during fire scenarios. Journal of Building Engineering, 98. p. 111129. ISSN 2352-7102, DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2024.111129.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
Evacuation is a critical procedure for safeguarding individuals during a fire incident within a healthcare facility. Assessing the risk associated with the evacuation process is instrumental in enhancing emergency decision-making and developing contingency strategies. Evacuation, a dynamic process, poses challenges in accurate risk evaluation using conventional static quantitative risk assessment (QRA) techniques. This study introduces a dynamic QRA approach to precisely evaluate the evacuation risk to individuals in healthcare settings during a fire. The dynamic event tree methodology is initially utilized to determine the evolving probabilities of various fire scenarios, considering the equipment failure and repair rates. Subsequently, data on fire products and the evacuation of individuals under different fire scenarios are gathered through simulations conducted with Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and Pathfinder software. In addition, this research proposes a dynamic incapacitation model to calculate the consequences of fire, incorporating changes in individuals' locations and the fire products surrounding them during evacuation to accurately estimate the casualty risk. Lastly, the dynamic scenario probability was integrated with the average incapacitation probability for all individuals, introducing the concept of a fire evacuation safety time window to comprehensively assess hospital fire evacuation risk. The findings revealed that the dynamic quantitative risk analysis (DQRA) approach more effectively captures the influence of fire products on the evacuation risk compared to static methods. Specifically, the peak incapacitation probability in a hospital fire reached 0.85, with firefighting equipment, especially the sprinkler system, reducing this risk by over 97 % and decreasing evacuation time by 45 %. In addition, the risk of fire evacuation in hospitals reaches a critical threshold in the fourth year, enhancing the repair rate of the firefighting system postpones the risk's escalation to a critical threshold until the fourteenth year.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Funders: | Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia via Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS/1/2019/TK06/UM/02/3), Universiti Malaya (LL007-15SUS) ; (GPF009F-2018) |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Hospital fire; Evacuation; Dynamic event tree; Dynamic incapacitation probability; Comprehensive risk |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TH Building construction |
| Divisions: | Faculty of the Built Environment Faculty of the Built Environment > Department of Building Surveying |
| Depositing User: | Ms. Juhaida Abd Rahim |
| Date Deposited: | 17 Mar 2025 03:09 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Mar 2025 03:09 |
| URI: | http://eprints.um.edu.my/id/eprint/47264 |
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