Khan, Faisal Ahmed and Khan, Tariq Masood Ali and Ahmed, Ali Najah and Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin and Sherif, Mohsen and Sefelnasr, Ahmed and El-Shafie, Ahmed (2020) Complex extreme sea levels prediction analysis: Karachi Coast case study. Entropy, 22 (5). ISSN 1099-4300, DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/E22050549.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
In this study, the analysis of the extreme sea level was carried out by using 10 years (2007-2016) of hourly tide gauge data of Karachi port station along the Pakistan coast. Observations revealed that the magnitudes of the tides usually exceeded the storm surges at this station. The main observation for this duration and the subsequent analysis showed that in June 2007 a tropical Cyclone ``Yemyin'' hit the Pakistan coast. The joint probability method (JPM) and the annual maximum method (AMM) were used for statistical analysis to find out the return periods of different extreme sea levels. According to the achieved results, the AMM and JPM methods erre compatible with each other for the Karachi coast and remained well within the range of 95% confidence. For the JPM method, the highest astronomical tide (HAT) of the Karachi coast was considered as the threshold and the sea levels above it were considered extreme sea levels. The 10 annual observed sea level maxima, in the recent past, showed an increasing trend for extreme sea levels. In the study period, the increment rates of 3.6 mm/year and 2.1 mm/year were observed for mean sea level and extreme sea level, respectively, along the Karachi coast. Tidal analysis, for the Karachi tide gauge data, showed less dependency of the extreme sea levels on the non-tidal residuals. By applying the Merrifield criteria of mean annual maximum water level ratio, it was found that the Karachi coast was tidally dominated and the non-tidal residual contribution was just 10%. The examination of the highest water level event (13 June 2014) during the study period, further favored the tidal dominance as compared to the non-tidal component along the Karachi coast.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Funders: | Karachi Port Trust, University Malaya [Grant No: RP025A-18SUS], University of Hawaii Sea Level Center |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Extreme sea level prediction; Complex system prediction; Annual maximum method; Joint probability method; Pakistan coast |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering > Department of Civil Engineering |
| Depositing User: | Ms Zaharah Ramly |
| Date Deposited: | 05 Nov 2024 07:47 |
| Last Modified: | 05 Nov 2024 07:47 |
| URI: | http://eprints.um.edu.my/id/eprint/36724 |
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