A model to predict the probability of acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy

Tan, Cheng Yin and Sekiguchi, Yukari and Goh, Khean Jin and Kuwabara, Satoshi and Shahrizaila, Nortina (2020) A model to predict the probability of acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy. Clinical Neurophysiology, 131 (1). pp. 63-69. ISSN 1388-2457, DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clinph.2019.09.025.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clinph.2019.09.025

Abstract

Objective: We aimed to develop a model that can predict the probabilities of acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (AIDP) based on nerve conduction studies (NCS) done within eight weeks. Methods: The derivation cohort included 90 Malaysian GBS patients with two sets of NCS performed early (1–20days) and late (3–8 weeks). Potential predictors of AIDP were considered in univariate and multivariate logistic regression models to develop a predictive model. The model was externally validated in 102 Japanese GBS patients. Results: Median motor conduction velocity (MCV), ulnar distal motor latency (DML) and abnormal ulnar/normal sural pattern were independently associated with AIDP at both timepoints (median MCV: p = 0.038, p = 0.014; ulnar DML: p = 0.002, p = 0.003; sural sparing: p = 0.033, p = 0.009). There was good discrimination of AIDP (area under the curve (AUC) 0.86–0.89) and this was valid in the validation cohort (AUC 0.74–0.94). Scores ranged from 0 to 6, and corresponded to AIDP probabilities of 15–98% at early NCS and 6–100% at late NCS. Conclusion: The probabilities of AIDP could be reliably predicted based on median MCV, ulnar DML and ulnar/sural sparing pattern that were determined at early and late stages of GBS. Significance: A simple and valid model was developed which can accurately predict the probability of AIDP. © 2019 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology

Item Type: Article
Funders: University of Malaya [grant number BK074-2017]
Uncontrolled Keywords: Acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy; Acute motor axonal neuropathy; Axonal GBS; Electrodiagnostic criteria; Guillain-Barré syndrome; Predictive model
Subjects: R Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine
Depositing User: Ms. Juhaida Abd Rahim
Date Deposited: 16 Jun 2020 01:37
Last Modified: 16 Jun 2020 01:37
URI: http://eprints.um.edu.my/id/eprint/24837

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