Modelling the Impact of Different Tuberculosis Control Interventions on the Prevalence of Tuberculosis in an Overcrowded Prison

Naning, Herlianna and Al-Darraji, Haider Abdulrazzaq Abed and McDonald, Scott and Ismail, Noor Azina and Kamarulzaman, Adeeba (2018) Modelling the Impact of Different Tuberculosis Control Interventions on the Prevalence of Tuberculosis in an Overcrowded Prison. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 30 (3). pp. 235-243. ISSN 1010-5395

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539518757229

Abstract

The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of tuberculosis (TB) treatment strategies interventions in an overcrowded and poorly ventilated prison with both high (5 months) and low (3 years) turnover of inmates against improved environmental conditions. We used a deterministic transmission model to simulate the effects of treatment of latent TB infection and active TB, or the combination of both treatment strategies. Without any intervention, the TB prevalence is estimated to increase to 8.8% for a prison with low turnover of inmates but modestly stabilize at 5.8% for high-turnover prisons in a 10-year period. Reducing overcrowding from 6 to 4 inmates per housing cell and increasing the ventilation rate from 2 to 12 air changes per hour combined with any treatment strategy would further reduce the TB prevalence to as low as 0.98% for a prison with low inmate turnover.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: inmates; LTBI; Malaysia; overcrowded prisons; tuberculosis
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
R Medicine
Divisions: Faculty of Economics & Administration
Faculty of Medicine
Depositing User: Ms. Juhaida Abd Rahim
Date Deposited: 08 May 2019 07:15
Last Modified: 08 May 2019 07:15
URI: http://eprints.um.edu.my/id/eprint/21170

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